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Belousov Alexander, Belousova Marina, Edwards Benjamin, Volynets Anna, Melnikov Dmitry Overview of the precursors and dynamics of the 2012–13 basaltic fissure eruption of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 22 - 37. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.06.013.
   Аннотация
Abstract We present a broad overview of the 2012–13 flank fissure eruption of Plosky Tolbachik Volcano in the central Kamchatka Peninsula. The eruption lasted more than nine months and produced approximately 0.55 km3 {DRE} (volume recalculated to a density of 2.8 g/cm3) of basaltic trachyandesite magma. The 2012–13 eruption of Tolbachik is one of the most voluminous historical eruptions of mafic magma at subduction related volcanoes globally, and it is the second largest at Kamchatka. The eruption was preceded by five months of elevated seismicity and ground inflation, both of which peaked a day before the eruption commenced on 27 November 2012. The batch of high-Al magma ascended from depths of 5–10 km; its apical part contained 54–55 wt. SiO2, and the main body 52–53 wt. SiO2. The eruption started by the opening of a 6 km-long radial fissure on the southwestern slope of the volcano that fed multi-vent phreatomagmatic and magmatic explosive activity, as well as intensive effusion of lava with an initial discharge of > 440 m3/s. After 10 days the eruption continued only at the lower part of the fissure, where explosive and effusive activity of Hawaiian–Strombolian type occurred from a lava pond in the crater of the main growing scoria cone. The discharge rate for the nine month long, effusion-dominated eruption gradually declined from 140 to 18 m3/s and formed a compound lava field with a total area of ~ 36 km2; the effusive activity evolved from high-discharge channel-fed 'a'a lavas to dominantly low-discharge tube-fed pahoehoe lavas. On 23 August, the effusion of lava ceased and the intra-crater lava pond drained. Weak Strombolian-type explosions continued for several more days on the crater bottom until the end of the eruption around 5 September 2013. Based on a broad array of new data collected during this eruption, we develop a model for the magma storage and transport system of Plosky Tolbachik that links the storage zones of the two main genetically related magma types of the volcano (high-Al and high-Mg basalts) with the clusters of local seismicity. The model explains why precursory seismicity and dynamics of the 2012–13 eruption was drastically different from those of the previous eruption of the volcano in 1975–76.
Kugaenko Yulia, Titkov Nikolay, Saltykov Vadim Constraints on unrest in the Tolbachik volcanic zone in Kamchatka prior the 2012–13 flank fissure eruption of Plosky Tolbachik volcano from local seismicity and GPS data // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 38 - 46. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.05.020.
   Аннотация
Abstract A new fissure eruption began on 27 November 2012 on the southern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano, which is located in central Kamchatka, Russia, and is part of the Klyuchevskoy volcano group. We analyzed the displacement of the earth surface and the seismicity during several months before the eruption onset. According to seismic and GPS data the eruption was preceded by about 4–5 months (July–November 2012) of synchronous crustal deformation and seismicity. The seismic anomaly comprises low energy level seismicity (mainly M = 1.2–2.3) under Plosky Tolbachik volcano at a depth of less than 5 km. In the 2–3 weeks immediately preceding the eruption the rate of seismicity and the amount of radiated seismic energy exceeded the long-term average values (2000–2011) by more than 40 times. The deformation anomaly was recorded by displacement of the GPS points at distances from 20 to 60 km to the north of Tolbachik. The principal axis of the compressive strain was approximately directed towards the Tolbachik eruption site. The permanent GPS network detected radial compression and tangential stretching. The compressive strain reached about 10− 7 prior to eruption onset. The comparable duration of seismic and deformation anomalies (~ 4–5 months before the eruption) is consistent with a common origin, connected to magma rising from depth, and is interpreted as indicating that they were medium-term precursors to the eruption. Data recorded during this unrest episode of the Tolbachik volcanic zone will contribute to understanding of the reawakening of volcanic activity in this region and others worldwide with similar characteristics.
Senyukov S.L., Nuzhdina I.N., Droznina S.Ya., Garbuzova V.T., Kozhevnikova T.Yu., Sobolevskaya O.V., Nazarova Z.A., Bliznetsov V.E. Reprint of "Seismic monitoring of the Plosky Tolbachik eruption in 2012-2013 (Kamchatka Peninsula Russia)" // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 47 - 59. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.07.026.
   Аннотация
Abstract The active basaltic volcano Plosky Tolbachik (Pl. Tolbachik) is located in the southern part of the Klyuchevskoy volcano group on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The previous 1975–1976 Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (1975–1976 GTFE) occurred in the southern sector of Pl. Tolbachik. It was preceded by powerful earthquakes with local magnitudes between 2.5 and 4.9 and it was successfully predicted with a short-term forecast. The Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey (KBGS) of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS) began to publish the results of daily seismic monitoring of active Kamchatka volcanoes on the Internet in 2000. Unlike the 1975–1976 {GTFE} precursor, (1) seismicity before the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption (2012–2013 TFE) was relatively weak and earthquake magnitudes did not exceed 2.5. (2) Precursory earthquake hypocenters at 0–5 km depth were concentrated mainly under the southeastern part of the volcano. (3) The frequency of events gradually increased in September 2012, and rose sharply on the eve of the eruption. (4) According to seismic data, the explosive-effusive 2012–2013 {TFE} began at ~ 05 h 15 min {UTC} on November 27, 2012; the outbreak occurred between the summit of the Pl. Tolbachik and the Northern Breakthrough of the 1975–1976 GTFE. (5) Because of bad weather, early interpretations of the onset time and the character of the eruption were made using seismological data only and were confirmed later by other monitoring methods. The eruption finished in early September 2013. This article presents the data obtained through real-time seismic monitoring and the results of retrospective analysis, with additional comments on the future monitoring of volcanic activity.
Caudron Corentin, Taisne Benoit, Kugaenko Yulia, Saltykov Vadim Magma migration at the onset of the 2012–13 Tolbachik eruption revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 60 - 67. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.09.010.
   Аннотация
Abstract In contrast of the 1975–76 Tolbachik eruption, the 2012–13 Tolbachik eruption was not preceded by any striking change in seismic activity. By processing the Klyuchevskoy volcano group seismic data with the Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method, we gain insights into the dynamics of magma movement prior to this important eruption. A clear seismic migration within the seismic swarm, started 20 hours before the reported eruption onset (05:15 UTC, 26 November 2012). This migration proceeded in different phases and ended when eruptive tremor, corresponding to lava flows, was recorded (at ~ 11:00 UTC, 27 November 2012). In order to get a first order approximation of the magma location, we compare the calculated seismic intensity ratios with the theoretical ones. As expected, the observations suggest that the seismicity migrated toward the eruption location. However, we explain the pre-eruptive observed ratios by a vertical migration under the northern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano followed by a lateral migration toward the eruptive vents. Another migration is also captured by this technique and coincides with a seismic swarm that started 16–20 km to the south of Plosky Tolbachik at 20:31 {UTC} on November 28 and lasted for more than 2 days. This seismic swarm is very similar to the seismicity preceding the 1975–76 Tolbachik eruption and can be considered as a possible aborted eruption.
Albert Sarah, Fee David, Firstov Pavel, Makhmudov Evgeniy, Izbekov Pavel Infrasound from the 2012–2013 Plosky Tolbachik, Kamchatka fissure eruption // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 68 - 78. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.08.019.
   Аннотация
Abstract We use both regional and local infrasound data to investigate the dynamics of the 2012–2013 eruption of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia during select periods of time. Analysis of regional data recorded at the {IMS} array {IS44} in southern Kamchatka, ~ 384 km from the vent focuses on the eruption onset in November 2012, while analysis of local data focuses on activity in February and August 2013. Signals recorded from Tolbachik suggest a change in eruptive intensity possibly occurred from November 27–30, 2012. Local infrasound data recorded at distances of 100–950 m from the vent are characterized primarily by repeated, transient explosion signals indicative of gas slug bursts. Three methods are employed to pick slug burst events in February and August. The nature of slug bursts makes a monopole acoustic source model particularly fitting, permitting volume outflux and slug radius calculations for individual events. Volume outfluxes and slug radii distributions provide three possible explanations for the eruption style of Tolbachik Volcano from mid-February to late August. Cumulative outflux for slug bursts (i.e. mass of emissions from individual bursts) derived by infrasound for both February and August range from < 100 to ~ 3000 kg. These values are greater than infrasound-derived emissions calculated at Pacaya Volcano, but less than those calculated at Mt. Erebus Volcano. From this, we determine slug bursts at Tolbachik Volcano in February and August were larger on average than those at Pacaya Volcano in 2010, but smaller on average than those at Mt. Erebus in 2008. Our overall emissions estimates are in general agreement with estimates from satellite observations. This agreement supports the monopole source inversion as a potential method for estimating mass of emissions from slug burst events.
Lundgren Paul, Kiryukhin Alexey, Milillo Pietro, Samsonov Sergey Dike model for the 2012–2013 Tolbachik eruption constrained by satellite radar interferometry observations // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 79 - 88. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.05.011.
   Аннотация
Abstract A large dike intrusion and fissure eruption lasting 9 months began on November 27, 2013, beneath the south flank of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia. The eruption was the most recent at Tolbachik since the Great Tolbachik Eruption from 1975 to 1976. The 2012 eruption was preceded by more than 6 months of seismicity that clustered beneath the east flank of the volcano along a NW–SE trend. Seismicity increased dramatically before the eruption, with propagation of the seismicity from the central volcano conduit in the final hours. We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to compute relative displacement images (interferograms) for {SAR} data pairs spanning the eruption. We use satellite {SAR} data from the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT-2 and from the Italian Space Agency's COSMO-SkyMed missions. Data are modeled first through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo solution for a single tensile dislocation (dike). We then use a boundary element method that includes topography to model a distributed dike-opening model. We find the best-fitting dike dips 80° to the {WNW} with maximum opening of 6–8 m, localized in the near surface and more broadly distributed in distinct regions up to 3 km beneath the surface, which varies from 1 to 2 km elevation for the eruptive fissures. The distribution of dike opening and its correspondence with co-diking seismicity suggests that the dike propagated radially from Tolbachik's central conduit.
Melnikov Dmitry, Volynets Anna O. Remote sensing and petrological observations on the 2012–2013 fissure eruption at Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka: Implications for reconstruction of the eruption chronology // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 89 - 97. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.09.025.
   Аннотация
Abstract We present a reconstruction of the chronological sequence of events that took place during the first days of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik fissure eruption using petrological data and remote sensing methods. We were forced to use this approach because bad weather conditions did not allow direct observations during the first two days of the eruption. We interpreted infrared images from the scanning radiometer {VIIRS} Suomi {NPP} and correlated the output with the results of the geochemical study, including comparison of the ash, deposited at the period from 27 to 29 November, with the samples of lava and bombs erupted from the Menyailov and Naboko vents. We argue that the compositional change observed in the eruption products (the decrease of SiO2 concentration and K2O/MgO ratio, increase of MgO concentration and Mg#) started approximately 24 h after the eruption began. At this time the center of activity moved to the southern part of the fissure, where the Naboko group of vents was formed; therefore, this timeframe also characterizes the timing of the Naboko vent opening. The Naboko group of vents remained active until the end of eruption in September 2013.
Telling J., Flower V.J.B., Carn S.A. A multi-sensor satellite assessment of SO2 emissions from the 2012–13 eruption of Plosky Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 98 - 106. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.07.010.
   Аннотация
Abstract Prolonged basaltic effusive eruptions at high latitudes can have significant atmospheric and environmental impacts, but can be challenging to observe in winter conditions. Here, we use multi-sensor satellite data to assess sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the 2012–2013 eruption of Plosky Tolbachik volcano (Kamchatka), which lasted ~ 9–10 months and erupted ~ 0.55 km3 DRE. Observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to evaluate volcanic activity, SO2 emissions and heat flux associated with the effusion of lava flows. Gaps in the primary OMI SO2 time-series dataset occurred due to instrument limitations and adverse meteorological conditions. Four methods were tested to assess how efficiently they could fill these data gaps and improve estimates of total SO2 emissions. When available, using data from other {SO2} observing instruments was the most comprehensive way to address these data gaps. Satellite measurements yield a total SO2 loading of ~ 200 kt SO2 during the 10-month Plosky Tolbachik eruption, although actual SO2 emissions may have been greater. Based on the satellite SO2 measurements, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) multi-taper method (MTM) was used to analyze cyclical behavior in the complete data series and a 55-day cycle potentially attributable to the eruptive behavior of Plosky Tolbachik during the 2012 – 2013 eruption was identified.
Edwards Benjamin R., Belousov Alexander, Belousova Marina, Melnikov Dmitry Observations on lava, snowpack and their interactions during the 2012–13 Tolbachik eruption, Klyuchevskoy Group, Kamchatka, Russia // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 107 - 119. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.08.010.
   Аннотация
Abstract Observations made during January and April 2013 show that interactions between lava flows and snowpack during the 2012–13 Tolbachik fissure eruption in Kamchatka, Russia, were controlled by different styles of emplacement and flow velocities. `A`a lava flows and sheet lava flows generally moved on top of the snowpack with few immediate signs of interaction besides localized steaming. However, lavas melted through underlying snowpack 1–4 m thick within 12 to 24 h, and melt water flowed episodically from the beneath flows. Pahoehoe lava lobes had lower velocities and locally moved beneath/within the snowpack; even there the snow melting was limited. Snowpack responses were physical, including compressional buckling and doming, and thermal, including partial and complete melting. Maximum lava temperatures were up to 1355 K (1082 °C; type K thermal probes), and maximum measured meltwater temperatures were 335 K (62.7 °C). Theoretical estimates for rates of rapid (e.g., radiative) and slower (conductive) snowmelt are consistent with field observations showing that lava advance was fast enough for `a`a and sheet flows to move on top of the snowpack. At least two styles of physical interactions between lava flows and snowpack observed at Tolbachik have not been previously reported: migration of lava flows beneath the snowpack, and localized phreatomagmatic explosions caused by snowpack failure beneath lava. The distinctive morphologies of sub-snowpack lava flows have a high preservation potential and can be used to document snowpack emplacement during eruptions.
Volynets Anna O., Edwards Benjamin R., Melnikov Dmitry, Yakushev Anton, Griboedova Irina Monitoring of the volcanic rock compositions during the 2012–2013 fissure eruption at Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka // Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 2015. Vol. 307. P. 120 - 132. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.07.014.
   Аннотация
Abstract Here we present the results from monitoring of the composition of rocks produced during the 2012–2013 fissure eruption at Tolbachik volcano (FTE). Major and trace element concentrations in 75 samples are reported. Products of this eruption are represented by high alumina basaltic trachyandesites with higher alkalis and titanium contents than in all previously studied rocks of the Tolbachik monogenetic volcanic field. Rocks erupted during the first three days (27–30 November) from the northern (also called Menyailov) group of vents are the most silica- and alkali-rich (SiO2 concentrations up to 55.35 wt. and {K2O} up to 2.67 wt.). From December onwards, when the eruptive activity switched from the Menyailov vents to the southern (Naboko) group of vents, silica content dropped by 2 wt., concentrations of MgO, FeO, TiO2 and Mg# increased, and {K2O} and Na2O concentrations and K2O/MgO ratio decreased. For the rest of the eruption the compositions of rocks remained constant and homogeneous; no systematic compositional differences between lava, bombs and scoria samples are evident. Trace element distributions in the rocks of the Menyailov and Naboko vent lavas are relatively uniform; Menyailov lavas have slightly higher Th, Nb, Hf, Y, and {HREE} concentrations than the Naboko vent lavas at more or less constant element ratios. We explain the initial change in geochemistry by tapping of a slightly cooler and fractionated (~ 3 Mt and 8 Cpx) upper part of the magma storage zone before the main storage area began to feed the eruption. Thermodynamic constraints show that apparent liquidus temperatures varied from 1142 °C to 1151 °C, and thermodynamic modeling shows that variations in compositions are consistent with a high degree of low pressure (100–300 MPa), nominally anhydrous fractionation of a parent melt compositionally similar to the 1975 Northern Breakthrough high-Mg basalt. Geochemistry, petrological observations and modeling are in agreement with the newly erupted material being derived from remnant high-Al magma from the 1975–76 Southern Breakthrough eruption with only slight amounts of cooling (less than 1 °C per year) during the intervening 36 years.