Горельчик В.И., Гарбузова В.Т., Дрознин Д.В., Левина В.И., Фирстов П.П., Чубарова О.С., Широков В.А. Вулкан Шивелуч: глубинное строение и прогноз извержения по данным детальной сейсмичности 1962—1994 гг. // Вулканология и сейсмология. 1995. № 4-5. С. 54-75.
Based on a detailed seismological observations from 1962 through 1994, the deep structure, focal layer geometry, magmatic feeding system of the Shiveluch volcano are investigated. Beneath the Shiveluch volcano, a focal layer deepens at an angle of 70 at depths of 100—200 km. Based on the established interrelation between the seismicity at depths of 105—120 km and a phase of extrusive volcano eruption in 1980 through 1994, a conclusion has been made that melting of primary magmas, periodically feeding the crustal chamber, occurs at depths at least 100 km. Increase of extrusive-explosive activity of the volcano is preceded and accompanied by the increasing number and energy of volcanic earthquakes both beneath the dome and in the zones of crustal faults of northwestern trend. A description is given of the methods used in the successful short-term prediction of the eruption in April 1993 which has been the most powerful since 1964. A mean-term prediction of possible increase of the volcano activity in April — July of 1995 is made.
